Main
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba vs Magomed Ankalaev
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
·Chartway Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ion Cutelaba
Magomed Ankalaev
33%
67%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
21-11-1
Career record
Δ 24 pp
22-2-1
W1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cutelaba: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Ankalaev: 8 sig / 0 TD
Ion Cutelaba
Magomed Ankalaev
32
Sig strikes landed
43
77
Sig strikes attempted
85
43
Total strikes landed
61
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
29s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
21-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
W3
Magomed Ankalaev
22-2-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—