🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Dominick Reyes
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Dominick Reyes
90%
10%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
77"
33
Age
Δ 2y
30
29-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
17-5
W8
Current streak
W6
17
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 104 sig / 2 TD ·
Reyes: 116 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Dominick Reyes
76
Sig strikes landed
42
115
Sig strikes attempted
102
95
Total strikes landed
49
2.1
Takedowns landed
-0.1
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
227s
Control time
-15s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
17 fights · 16-0
Last 5
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W6
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—