Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kara-France
Tyson Nam
86%
14%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
27
Age
Δ 10y
36
25-13
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-15-1
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kara-France: 78 sig / 0 TD ·
Nam: 50 sig / 0 TD
Kai Kara-France
Tyson Nam
65
Sig strikes landed
55
173
Sig strikes attempted
141
80
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
99s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tyson Nam
21-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—