Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Emil Meek
86%
14%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
24-8
Career record
Δ 19 pp
9-6-1
W1
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 33 sig / 4 TD ·
Meek: 50 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Emil Meek
44
Sig strikes landed
30
90
Sig strikes attempted
80
69
Total strikes landed
42
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
243s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
L2
Emil Meek
"Valhalla"
9-6-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—