Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Paul Felder
Dan Hooker
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
18-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-14
W2
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Felder: 110 sig / 0 TD ·
Hooker: 122 sig / 1 TD
Paul Felder
Dan Hooker
59
Sig strikes landed
59
126
Sig strikes attempted
138
60
Total strikes landed
67
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
126s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
Blue corner
W2
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—