Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Brett Johns vs Tony Gravely

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos ·PNC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Brett Johns
Tony Gravely
61% 39%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
L2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Johns: 36 sig / 6 TD · Gravely: 26 sig / 5 TD
Brett Johns
Tony Gravely
42
Sig strikes landed
39
99
Sig strikes attempted
84
65
Total strikes landed
53
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
241s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Brett Johns

"The Pikey"
17-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
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L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
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W The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
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W UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
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W UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
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Blue corner

Tony Gravely

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28