Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos
Prelims1 Featherweight

Herbert Burns vs Nate Landwehr

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos ·PNC Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Herbert Burns
Nate Landwehr
45% 55%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Burns: 7 sig / 1 TD · Landwehr: 4 sig / 0 TD
Herbert Burns
Nate Landwehr
36
Sig strikes landed
39
78
Sig strikes attempted
82
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Herbert Burns

"The Blaze"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Nate Landwehr

"The Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32