Prelims2
Middleweight
Punahele Soriano vs Oskar Piechota
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Punahele Soriano
Oskar Piechota
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Soriano: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Piechota: 8 sig / 0 TD
Punahele Soriano
Oskar Piechota
30
Sig strikes landed
37
58
Sig strikes attempted
74
49
Total strikes landed
44
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
137s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Punahele Soriano
"Puna"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
L2
Oskar Piechota
"Imadlo"
11-4-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
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