Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khadis Ibragimov
Ed Herman
68%
32%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
24
Age
Δ 15y
39
8-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
28-16
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ibragimov: 53 sig / 2 TD ·
Herman: 81 sig / 0 TD
Khadis Ibragimov
Ed Herman
46
Sig strikes landed
48
87
Sig strikes attempted
103
61
Total strikes landed
73
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Khadis Ibragimov
8-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—