Back to UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Maurice Greene vs Sergei Pavlovich

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren ·Singapore Indoor Stadium

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Maurice Greene
Sergei Pavlovich
16% 84%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
84"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
10-7
Career record
Δ 29 pp
22-3
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Greene: 8 sig / 0 TD · Pavlovich: 20 sig / 0 TD
Maurice Greene
Sergei Pavlovich
20
Sig strikes landed
27
39
Sig strikes attempted
60
22
Total strikes landed
38
-0.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
-0.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
-1s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
84%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Maurice Greene

"The Crochet Boss"
10-7
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
W The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
Blue corner
W1

Sergei Pavlovich

22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…