Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Prelims2 Middleweight

Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik ·Capital One Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Makhmud Muradov
Trevor Smith
87% 13%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
30
Age
Δ 9y
39
27-8
Career record
Δ 19 pp
15-11
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Muradov: 91 sig / 1 TD · Smith: 39 sig / 0 TD
Makhmud Muradov
Trevor Smith
48
Sig strikes landed
41
125
Sig strikes attempted
109
77
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
110s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Makhmud Muradov

27-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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Blue corner
L2

Trevor Smith

"Hot Sauce"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
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L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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