Back to UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Prelims1 Lightweight

Joe Solecki vs Matt Wiman

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik ·Capital One Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joe Solecki
Matt Wiman
74% 26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 10y
36
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Solecki: 56 sig / 4 TD · Wiman: 10 sig / 0 TD
Joe Solecki
Matt Wiman
38
Sig strikes landed
38
77
Sig strikes attempted
71
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
106s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Joe Solecki

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1

Matt Wiman

16-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
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