Prelims2
Featherweight
Julio Arce vs Hakeem Dawodu
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Hakeem Dawodu
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
20-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-4-1
W1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arce: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Dawodu: 55 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Hakeem Dawodu
60
Sig strikes landed
56
146
Sig strikes attempted
142
82
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Julio Arce
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W3
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
14-4-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—