Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Rosa
Manny Bermudez
28%
72%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 8y
25
14-9
Career record
Δ 21 pp
14-3
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rosa: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Bermudez: 27 sig / 1 TD
Charles Rosa
Manny Bermudez
22
Sig strikes landed
38
57
Sig strikes attempted
87
28
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
48%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
Blue corner
L1
Manny Bermudez
"The Bermudez Triangle"
14-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—