Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Deron Winn
Darren Stewart
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
8-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
13-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Winn: 29 sig / 6 TD ·
Stewart: 57 sig / 1 TD
Deron Winn
Darren Stewart
3
Sig strikes landed
65
50
Sig strikes attempted
127
31
Total strikes landed
76
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
202s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Deron Winn
8-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
Blue corner
W1
Darren Stewart
"The Dentist"
13-8
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—