Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Jonathan Pearce
57%
43%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
35
Age
Δ 8y
28
L3
Current streak
—
20
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lauzon: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
Pearce: 8 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Jonathan Pearce
30
Sig strikes landed
38
65
Sig strikes attempted
81
46
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
154s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 9-11
Last 5
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
Blue corner
Jonathan Pearce
"JSP"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28