Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Allen
Kevin Holland
70%
30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
—
Current streak
W3
0
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Allen: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Holland: 22 sig / 1 TD
Brendan Allen
Kevin Holland
37
Sig strikes landed
43
89
Sig strikes attempted
93
56
Total strikes landed
72
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brendan Allen
"All In"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
W3
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
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L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—