Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Vinicius Moreira vs Paul Craig
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vinicius Moreira
Paul Craig
48%
52%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
9-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-11-1
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Moreira: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 18 sig / 1 TD
Vinicius Moreira
Paul Craig
16
Sig strikes landed
23
32
Sig strikes attempted
43
30
Total strikes landed
36
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Vinicius Moreira
"Mamute"
9-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
L1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—