Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Askar Askarov
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
L2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moreno: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Askarov: 30 sig / 4 TD
Brandon Moreno
Askar Askarov
39
Sig strikes landed
36
101
Sig strikes attempted
78
61
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
Askar Askarov
"Bullet"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27