Main
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Alexa Grasso
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
·Arena CDMX
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Alexa Grasso
48%
52%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
21-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-5-1
W1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Esparza: 44 sig / 4 TD ·
Grasso: 45 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Alexa Grasso
45
Sig strikes landed
51
106
Sig strikes attempted
127
77
Total strikes landed
80
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
6.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
276s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
82%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W1
Alexa Grasso
18-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—