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Main Featherweight

TJ Brown vs Dylan Lockard

DWCS 3.10 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
TJ Brown
Dylan Lockard
58% 42%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Brown: 43 sig / 5 TD · Lockard: 17 sig / 2 TD
TJ Brown
Dylan Lockard
41
Sig strikes landed
34
81
Sig strikes attempted
75
56
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

TJ Brown

"Downtown"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
Blue corner

Dylan Lockard

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27