Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ben Sosoli
Dustin Joynson
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Sosoli: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Joynson: 7 sig / 0 TD
Ben Sosoli
Dustin Joynson
32
Sig strikes landed
35
61
Sig strikes attempted
67
48
Total strikes landed
69
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ben Sosoli
"Combat Wombat"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
Dustin Joynson
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34