Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Kailan Hill
Impa Kasanganay
51%
49%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hill: 39 sig / 3 TD ·
Kasanganay: 72 sig / 2 TD
Kailan Hill
Impa Kasanganay
33
Sig strikes landed
34
67
Sig strikes attempted
71
41
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kailan Hill
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
Impa Kasanganay
"Tshilobo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26