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Main Bantamweight

Ricky Steele vs Phil Caracappa

DWCS 3.9 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ricky Steele
Phil Caracappa
57% 43%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Steele: 61 sig / 0 TD · Caracappa: 44 sig / 1 TD
Ricky Steele
Phil Caracappa
35
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
72
70
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ricky Steele

"The Karate Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Phil Caracappa

"The Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27