Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Justin Gaethje
41%
59%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
36
Age
Δ 6y
31
36-18
Career record
Δ 18 pp
28-5
L1
Current streak
W2
32
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaethje: 40 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Justin Gaethje
49
Sig strikes landed
64
127
Sig strikes attempted
122
60
Total strikes landed
84
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
41s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
32 fights · 23-9
Last 5
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
W2
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—