Main
Lightweight
Scott Holtzman vs Dong Hyun Ma
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Scott Holtzman
Dong Hyun Ma
63%
37%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
14-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-12-3
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Holtzman: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Ma: 16 sig / 1 TD
Scott Holtzman
Dong Hyun Ma
48
Sig strikes landed
45
97
Sig strikes attempted
97
73
Total strikes landed
56
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
246s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
14-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
Blue corner
L1
Dong Hyun Ma
"Maestro"
16-12-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—