Back to UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Karol Rosa vs Lara Procopio

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang ·Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Karol Rosa
Lara Procopio
70% 30%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
25
Age
Δ 1y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rosa: 171 sig / 0 TD · Procopio: 165 sig / 0 TD
Karol Rosa
Lara Procopio
41
Sig strikes landed
35
84
Sig strikes attempted
76
76
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
193s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Karol Rosa

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Lara Procopio

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24