Prelims1
Lightweight
Damir Ismagulov vs Thiago Moises
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang
·Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Damir Ismagulov
Thiago Moises
80%
20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
29
Age
Δ 4y
24
25-3
Career record
Δ 23 pp
20-10
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ismagulov: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Moises: 36 sig / 0 TD
Damir Ismagulov
Thiago Moises
45
Sig strikes landed
33
92
Sig strikes attempted
73
81
Total strikes landed
49
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.8
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
249s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Damir Ismagulov
"Qazaq"
25-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—