Main
Flyweight
Kai Kara-France vs Mark De La Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang
·Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kara-France
Mark De La Rosa
79%
21%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
26-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-6
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kara-France: 91 sig / 1 TD ·
De La Rosa: 60 sig / 1 TD
Kai Kara-France
Mark De La Rosa
51
Sig strikes landed
40
121
Sig strikes attempted
103
79
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.2
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.40
Knockdowns
-0.10
242s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
26-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Mark De La Rosa
"Bumblebee"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—