Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Don Madge
Fares Ziam
26%
74%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 6y
22
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Madge: 21 sig / 3 TD ·
Ziam: 10 sig / 0 TD
Don Madge
Fares Ziam
25
Sig strikes landed
27
55
Sig strikes attempted
73
38
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
61s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Don Madge
"Magic Man"
10-3-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
Blue corner
Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23