🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
·Rogers Place
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Frankie Edgar
85%
15%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
28
Age
Δ 10y
38
27-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-11-1
L1
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 129 sig / 0 TD ·
Edgar: 96 sig / 1 TD
Max Holloway
Frankie Edgar
174
Sig strikes landed
99
344
Sig strikes attempted
247
140
Total strikes landed
105
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
-0.2
Takedowns attempted
9.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
3s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
20 fights · 16-4
Last 5
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
W1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
17 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—