Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Billy Quarantillo
Kamuela Kirk
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
31
Age
Δ 5y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Quarantillo: 127 sig / 0 TD ·
Kirk: 55 sig / 2 TD
Billy Quarantillo
Kamuela Kirk
38
Sig strikes landed
38
79
Sig strikes attempted
81
52
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
154s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Billy Quarantillo
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Kamuela Kirk
"The Jawaiian"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
25