Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ricardo Prasel
Don'Tale Mayes
68%
32%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
81"
29
Age
Δ 2y
28
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Prasel: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Mayes: 39 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Prasel
Don'Tale Mayes
47
Sig strikes landed
49
89
Sig strikes attempted
96
62
Total strikes landed
61
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
123s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ricardo Prasel
"Alemao"
0-0
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
W1
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
12-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
DWCS 2.7
—
L
DWCS 1.8
—