Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brendan Allen
Aaron Jeffery
85%
15%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Allen: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Jeffery: 21 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Allen
Aaron Jeffery
40
Sig strikes landed
31
82
Sig strikes attempted
72
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brendan Allen
"All In"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Aaron Jeffery
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27