Main
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Leon Edwards
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
·Frost Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Leon Edwards
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
33-17
Career record
Δ 13 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W7
24
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dos Anjos: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Edwards: 92 sig / 3 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Leon Edwards
39
Sig strikes landed
45
77
Sig strikes attempted
111
69
Total strikes landed
74
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
24 fights · 17-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
Blue corner
W7
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—