Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Sanford Alton Meeks
Yorgan De Castro
62%
38%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Meeks: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
De Castro: 19 sig / 0 TD
Sanford Alton Meeks
Yorgan De Castro
31
Sig strikes landed
26
66
Sig strikes attempted
53
41
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sanford Alton Meeks
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Yorgan De Castro
"The Mad Titan"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33