Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Punahele Soriano
Jamie Pickett
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Soriano: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Pickett: 36 sig / 0 TD
Punahele Soriano
Jamie Pickett
36
Sig strikes landed
26
59
Sig strikes attempted
58
53
Total strikes landed
32
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Punahele Soriano
"Puna"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
L1
Jamie Pickett
"The Night Wolf"
13-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 1.1
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