Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sabina Mazo
Shana Dobson
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
9-5
Career record
Δ 24 pp
4-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mazo: 108 sig / 4 TD ·
Dobson: 33 sig / 0 TD
Sabina Mazo
Shana Dobson
62
Sig strikes landed
58
173
Sig strikes attempted
147
71
Total strikes landed
80
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
67s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sabina Mazo
"Colombian Queen"
9-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Shana Dobson
"Danger"
4-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—