🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Thiago Santos
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Thiago Santos
93%
7%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
29-1
Career record
Δ 29 pp
23-11
W8
Current streak
W4
16
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Jones: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 43 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Thiago Santos
83
Sig strikes landed
37
123
Sig strikes attempted
109
132
Total strikes landed
42
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.0
4.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
301s
Control time
4s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 15-0
Last 5
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W4
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—