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Francis Ngannou vs Junior Dos Santos

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos ·Target Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Francis Ngannou
Junior Dos Santos
66% 34%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
33
Age
Δ 3y
35
18-3
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-9
W2
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ngannou: 9 sig / 0 TD · Dos Santos: 4 sig / 0 TD
Francis Ngannou
Junior Dos Santos
37
Sig strikes landed
40
97
Sig strikes attempted
81
47
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
-0.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
63s
Control time
-3s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
73%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Francis Ngannou

"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
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L UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
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L UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
Blue corner
W3

Junior Dos Santos

"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—