Prelims1
Featherweight
Dan Ige vs Kevin Aguilar
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie
·Bon Secours Wellness Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Dan Ige
Kevin Aguilar
50%
50%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
20-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-5
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ige: 71 sig / 1 TD ·
Aguilar: 33 sig / 1 TD
Dan Ige
Kevin Aguilar
47
Sig strikes landed
46
120
Sig strikes attempted
133
54
Total strikes landed
70
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Dan Ige
"100K"
20-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W2
Kevin Aguilar
"Angel of Death"
18-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—