Back to UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie
Prelims1 Middleweight

Deron Winn vs Eric Spicely

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie ·Bon Secours Wellness Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Deron Winn
Eric Spicely
56% 44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
—
Current streak
L3
0
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Winn: 169 sig / 0 TD · Spicely: 108 sig / 0 TD
Deron Winn
Eric Spicely
25
Sig strikes landed
26
46
Sig strikes attempted
66
42
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
126s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Deron Winn

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L3

Eric Spicely

"Zebrinha"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
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