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Joel Alvarez vs Danilo Belluardo

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joel Alvarez
Danilo Belluardo
80% 20%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Alvarez: 19 sig / 0 TD · Belluardo: 13 sig / 2 TD
Joel Alvarez
Danilo Belluardo
42
Sig strikes landed
39
98
Sig strikes attempted
97
56
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Joel Alvarez

"El Fenomeno"
23-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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Blue corner

Danilo Belluardo

"Caterpillar"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25