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Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Smith

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
Anthony Smith
45% 55%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
31
18-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
38-23
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Gustafsson: 72 sig / 1 TD · Smith: 49 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
Anthony Smith
57
Sig strikes landed
46
127
Sig strikes attempted
104
71
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alexander Gustafsson

"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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L UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
Blue corner
L1

Anthony Smith

"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—