Prelims1
Featherweight
Julio Arce vs Julian Erosa
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
·Blue Cross Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Julian Erosa
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
19-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
31-15
L1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Arce: 74 sig / 1 TD ·
Erosa: 43 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Julian Erosa
38
Sig strikes landed
39
113
Sig strikes attempted
110
70
Total strikes landed
52
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
224s
Control time
34s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julio Arce
19-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
L3
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—