🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Henry Cejudo
Marlon Moraes
53%
47%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
17-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-10-1
W4
Current streak
W4
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cejudo: 90 sig / 1 TD ·
Moraes: 57 sig / 0 TD
Henry Cejudo
Marlon Moraes
50
Sig strikes landed
46
115
Sig strikes attempted
111
51
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
139s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
Blue corner
W4
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—