Back to UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Prelims1 Featherweight

Kyle Nelson vs Matt Sayles

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy ·Canadian Tire Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Kyle Nelson
Matt Sayles
60% 40%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
17-8-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Nelson: 26 sig / 2 TD · Sayles: 75 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Nelson
Matt Sayles
58
Sig strikes landed
37
122
Sig strikes attempted
104
63
Total strikes landed
61
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kyle Nelson

"The Monster"
17-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
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Blue corner
L1

Matt Sayles

8-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
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