Back to UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Mitch Gagnon vs Cole Smith

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy ·Canadian Tire Centre
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Mitch Gagnon
Cole Smith
55% 45%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
35
Age
Δ 4y
30
L2
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gagnon: 15 sig / 0 TD · Smith: 38 sig / 2 TD
Mitch Gagnon
Cole Smith
27
Sig strikes landed
33
55
Sig strikes attempted
65
45
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Mitch Gagnon

12-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner

Cole Smith

"The Cole Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30