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Prelims1 Lightweight

Magomed Mustafaev vs Rafael Fiziev

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik ·Yubileyny Sports Palace
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Magomed Mustafaev
Rafael Fiziev
53% 47%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
L1
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mustafaev: 10 sig / 0 TD · Fiziev: 1 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Mustafaev
Rafael Fiziev
23
Sig strikes landed
22
47
Sig strikes attempted
45
39
Total strikes landed
34
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Magomed Mustafaev

"The Sniper"
14-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
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W UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
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Blue corner

Rafael Fiziev

"Ataman"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26