Back to UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Brandon Davis vs Randy Costa

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 ·State Farm Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Brandon Davis
Randy Costa
51% 49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Davis: 35 sig / 0 TD · Costa: 46 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Davis
Randy Costa
48
Sig strikes landed
44
109
Sig strikes attempted
107
63
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Brandon Davis

"Killer B"
14-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
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L UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner

Randy Costa

"The Zohan"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
25